Research Interests

Macro and Monetary Economics, International Economics, Applied Time-Series Econometrics, Institutional Performance Analysis, Machine Learning

Working Papers

Corporate Dollar Debt and Global Trades (with Junhyong Kim and Annie Soyean Lee)

This paper investigates the role of dollar debt and firm heterogeneity in shaping the exchange rate pass-through to global trades. With a unique dataset that merges extensive firm-level balance sheet information with transaction-level Korean customs data, we find that firms with greater exposure to foreign currency debt tend to decrease their export quantities and increase their export prices following the devaluation at the end of 1997, particularly pronounced for smaller firms. On the other hand, larger exporters increase their export quantities and lower their export prices as they are more indebted in foreign currency. The heterogeneous price and quantity responses across firm size potentially arise from large firms, indebted in foreign currency, not facing the disruption in their production as much as smaller firms. On top of that, larger firms may increase their exports to generate more cashflows when they are more indebted in foreign currency as their production capacity is not restricted after the devaluation. We also find that exporters, indebted in foreign currency, reduce their sales to domestic markets more than domestic firms, especially when exporters are small facing tighter financial constraints. The panel data analysis from 2001-2020 confirms the relevance of the financial channel of dollar debt in the exchange rate pass-through to export prices and quantities in more recent periods.

Monetary Policy under Data Uncertainty: Interest-Rate Smoothing from a Cross-Country Perspective [media coverage][AEA2021][EWMES21], under revision

Cross-country estimates of Taylor rules suggest that higher data uncertainty is associated with more inertial behavior of interest rates. Data uncertainty is measured by the volatility of differences between real-time data and revisions thereto. Using a simple structural model with Kalman filter learning to replicate the cross-country pattern of the inertial behavior, we show that inertial behavior increases not because central banks gradually adjust interest rates in the face of data uncertainty, but because their inferences about the true data are correlated with past interest rates. The inertial behavior of interest rates is thus endogenized as resulting in part from the learning process.

The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Outward Foreign Direct Investment (with Yuhyeon Bak), R&R at Journal of International Money and Finance

This paper investigates the effects of relative economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from South Korea to 21 host countries. We develop a theoretical model for the relationship between uncertainty and outward FDI and estimate the dynamic effects of the relative EPU on FDI outflows using the dynamic panel and panel VAR models. We find that a relatively high EPU in the home country significantly contributes to increased outward FDI. When a one-percent relative EPU shock occurs, FDI outflow peaks in the fifth quarter, with the accumulated response of FDI outflows rising approximately 1.43%, then gradually decreasing over the next quarters.

Dynamic Coupling of the U.S. and Canadian Industrial Production Indices, submitted

We study the coupling of the United States and Canada's industrial production indices using a non-linear autoregressive model. Estimating the exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) model in the literature is improved with an expanded set of specifications. We identify the dynamic linkage between the United States and Canada and evaluate the forecast performance of each model. The results show the non-linear autoregressive model with bilateral trade linkage to outperform other models suggested by existing studies.

• Central Bank Swap Lines, Bank Risk Management and Currency Choice in Trade (with Yang Jiao, Ohyun Kwon, and Shang-Jin Wei), paper coming soon

Works in Progress

• Does Internationalization of RMB Facilitate Cross-Border Trade? (with Yang Jiao and Ohyun Kwon)

• Machine Learning Approach to FOMC Sentiment Analysis (with Hope Hyeun Han)

• College Education, Occupational Sorting, and International Trade (with Soo Hyun Oh)

• ChatGPT, You Screwed Me for the Exam! (with Michael Burrell and Molan Kim)

Journal Articles

The Cyclical Behavior of Household and Corporate Credit in Emerging Economies (with Seung-Gyu Sim), Emerging Markets Review 45, 2020. [SSRN]

Macroeconomic Conditions and Wage Inequality: Expanding and Analyzing the Worldwide Dataset, Annals of Economics and Finance 24(2), 2023. [SSRN]

Other Research Works

• Reframing for New Insights and Opportunities (with Joonhwan In, Young-Choon Kim, MinChung Kim, and Hope Hyeun Han), Hankyungsa, 2020.

Economic Impact of UNIST (with UNIST indicator research team), UNIST, May 2022.

Doctoral Dissertation

• Essays in Macroeconomics

University of Wisconsin - Madison,  April 2019